イタリアの街での封印成功例 朝日にも出ていますが、このAndrea Crisantiはマラリア蚊改変（メスを根絶して媒介蚊を絶滅させる）で有名なかたです。 www.theguardian.com It’s now about one month since Covid-19 began to sweep across Italy. With more than total cases topping 40,000 as of 19 March, it is now the worst-affected country outside of China. But in the last two weeks, a promising pilot study here has produced results that may be instructive for other countries trying to control coronavirus. Beginning on 6 March , along with researchers at the University of Padua and the Red Cross, we tested all residents of Vò, a town of 3,000 inhabitants near Venice – including those who did not have symptoms. This allowed us to quarantine people before they showed signs of infection and stop the further spread of coronavirus. In this way, we eradicated coronavirus in under 14 days. While we believe it is too late to enact this approach in a city such as Milan, where infections are out of control, there could still be time to do this in the UK before the crisis gets even worse: the government could identify and isolate clusters, quarantine everyone affected, trace their recent contacts, and quarantine and isolate them, too – whether they had symptoms or not. Our experiment came to be by chance. The Italian authorities had a strong emotional reaction to news of the country’s first death – which was in Vò. The whole town was put into quarantine and every inhabitant was tested. The tests were processed by us at the University of Padua. It became clear that this was a unique epidemiological setting – and an application was put in to keep the town in lockdown and run a second round of tests after nine days. Advertisement In the first round of testing, 89 people tested positive. In the second round, the number had dropped to six, who remained in isolation. In this way, we managed to eradicate coronavirus from Vò, achieving a 100% recovery rate for those previously infected while recording no further cases of transmission. We made an interesting finding: at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, a significant proportion of the population, about 3%, had already been infected – yet most of them were completely asymptomatic. Our study established a valuable principle: testing of all citizens, whether or not they have symptoms, provides a way to control this pandemic.これが結論。 まず、ミラノのような大都市では最早手遅れで追跡も不可能なので、人口4千のこの街を選んだ。全員を検査して、隔離した結果、事実上封鎖に成功した。と言うことですが、4千の街だからできたこと。大都市では不可能だし、国全体は小国でもない限り無理で、しかも街に籠城しているうちは良いが、城から出たら感染が待っている。これは当たり前のことで、世界中が解決しなければならない課題。正直、これで希望の灯りがともることはありません。むしろ当たり前の結果です。恐らく、台湾はこれに近い方法で封鎖。実際は鎖国ですが、この国も開国をどう見極めるかが難しいでしょう。韓国、香港と韓国との間は再開し、日本からの道は封鎖とか。 興味深いのは、イタリアでは、死亡率8%はSARSのそれと同じで、これが何故イタリアで起きてしまったか。This high rate is misleading,・・以下にありますが、実際の感染者数はもっと多いと言うことになります。上記3%って、武漢からの救援機の乗客の感染率に近いので、ロンバルディアの人口一千万としたら30万人が感染していることになります。イタリア全土で10万弱なので、この数字は妥当なのではないかと思います。ベネト州では人口の8%を検査して死亡率は3%弱なので、やはり感染は相当進んでいると考えられます。医療水準や医療危機の違いがあるでしょうが、やはり、北部での感染が武漢程度に深刻だと言うことでしょう。
